I have not posted for a month since I've been busy with work and relocation from Bellevue -> Redmond (btw, moving is a bitch!)
I have also been quiet with my trading, I am still overweight on Brazil with the remaining vested in China. A lot has happened since my last post a month ago. We saw oil at record highs and just today I filled up my Audi with at 4.50 a gallon (1. I was at Chevon and 2. I pumped 92 octane... don't ask why). I think it's time to make regular drives to Costco for my gasoline! Bernanke in a surprising move spoke about the dollar yesterday (I say surprising because he rarely talks about the dollar directly).
"We are attentive to implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer term inflation expectations"
It pretty much says "We are done printing money, lets get the dollar backup!". Commodities swiftly reacted as most of the hard and soft commodities have traded significantly lower. This brings me to my next topic, OIL.
There's no doubt that we are in a OIL bubble. But this bubble isn't one without strong fundamental. Today , Oil corrected back to 122 amidst demand concerns. Has 4.00+ gas really effected the way you live so far? Yes I agree its painful but so far I have not changed my spending habits. Oil has corrected and the oil bears are out with every possible way to sell crude. Reasons I have heard why crude will crash
1) USD dollar rising
2) CFTC stepping in to crush speculators
3) Demand drying up as oil hits record highs
While the USO (ETF tracking Crude) was over bought a week ago, the correction in the past few made crude over sold (I am too lazy to put the chart). On the note of CFTC eliminating speculators, I peronsally feel the impact will be limited. During this correction. I have been adding to my stake more PetroBras.
PetroBras fudmentals continue to be improving with news tonight that Fitch upgrading it's credit rating to BBB-. This past month, PetroBras has also secured 80% of the oil rigs in preparation for which could possibly be one of the largest discoveries since 1973.
For those who are interested or has a vested interested
Current Exploration Concessions
Off Shore Rig Stats
Block Relinquishment Schedule
I have also been quiet with my trading, I am still overweight on Brazil with the remaining vested in China. A lot has happened since my last post a month ago. We saw oil at record highs and just today I filled up my Audi with at 4.50 a gallon (1. I was at Chevon and 2. I pumped 92 octane... don't ask why). I think it's time to make regular drives to Costco for my gasoline! Bernanke in a surprising move spoke about the dollar yesterday (I say surprising because he rarely talks about the dollar directly).
"We are attentive to implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer term inflation expectations"
It pretty much says "We are done printing money, lets get the dollar backup!". Commodities swiftly reacted as most of the hard and soft commodities have traded significantly lower. This brings me to my next topic, OIL.
There's no doubt that we are in a OIL bubble. But this bubble isn't one without strong fundamental. Today , Oil corrected back to 122 amidst demand concerns. Has 4.00+ gas really effected the way you live so far? Yes I agree its painful but so far I have not changed my spending habits. Oil has corrected and the oil bears are out with every possible way to sell crude. Reasons I have heard why crude will crash
1) USD dollar rising
2) CFTC stepping in to crush speculators
3) Demand drying up as oil hits record highs
While the USO (ETF tracking Crude) was over bought a week ago, the correction in the past few made crude over sold (I am too lazy to put the chart). On the note of CFTC eliminating speculators, I peronsally feel the impact will be limited. During this correction. I have been adding to my stake more PetroBras.
PetroBras fudmentals continue to be improving with news tonight that Fitch upgrading it's credit rating to BBB-. This past month, PetroBras has also secured 80% of the oil rigs in preparation for which could possibly be one of the largest discoveries since 1973.
For those who are interested or has a vested interested
Current Exploration Concessions
Off Shore Rig Stats
Block Relinquishment Schedule
The above three links should give you a good idea as to where the next discovery will be. On a more bearish front, the costs to exploit the new discoveries could cost near 240 billion dollars
I also added UBB (UNIBANCO BRASILRS SA) and X (US Steel) to my portfolio.
One of my favorite guru investor Ken Heebner was voted America's hottest investor (article below). Lets hope he lives forever because I do own shares in CGMFX :)
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/23/magazines/fortune/birger_americas_hottest_investor.fortune/
